2011 is likely to go down in history as the year that everything happened. Inflationary fears took centre stage as the year began, with food prices outpacing their 2008 highs and oil prices tipping the $100/barrel mark. As the first quarter continued, though, three major events shook the world: firstly, a devastating earthquake in Japan, and its subsequent nuclear crisis; secondly, the evident beginning of the ‘Arab Spring’ in the Middle East; and thirdly, not only did the EU deal on a Greek bailout package fail to calm market fears, but the Portuguese government fell, prompting all out fear over the European sovereign crisis. Throughout the spring, most economic data points were weaker than expected, in part due to supply chain disruptions resulting from the Japanese earthquake, but probably also owing to the ongoing Chinese slowdown. Market focus gradually moved back towards the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy: the US debt ceiling was reached on 16th May, tensions escalated between ECB officials and EU leaders about a possible Greek debt restructuring, and Spanish and Italian ruling parties suffered massive losses at regional elections.
The summer months were then characterised by global market mayhem, as escalating US political tensions saw a lack of agreement on the debt ceiling and threats of debt downgrades from rating agencies, while in Europe a series of bailouts – direct and indirect – attempted to calm the chaos. China witnessed further rate hikes, while Japan and Switzerland enacted currency interventions, and it became clear that global growth was slowing.
The European soap opera held the market’s attention throughout autumn, and after much stalling and fanfare, a broad framework devised by euro zone leaders – including a debt haircut of 50% for private investors, recapitalisation of banks, and a three-year €489 billion ECB bank liquidity programme – had a more positive market impact than many predicted. There were new leaders for the ECB, Italy, Greece and Spain, and an alarming rise in most euro zone government bond yields. Elsewhere in Europe, the Bank of England introduced a new, four-month £75 billion cycle of quantitative easing. In the emerging markets there was a general loosening of monetary policy, while the US witnessed the rebirth of Operation Twist (last seen in 1961) with a $400bn plan to buy bonds, but started to see more reasonable macroeconomic activity and data, regarding housing in particular.
As the year drew to a close, a divergent world appears to be emerging, with signs of improvement in the US, Europe in recession, and the emerging world facing a softer landing than some had feared.
2012 will of course hold extreme austerity across Europe, and problems are also arising in emerging economies, with Chinese inflation back to 2008 levels and the Indian economy slowing fast. However, there is some optimism to be found on the horizon. The EU (minus the UK) is showing some unity at last, and the ESM (a new primary bailout mechanism with €500bn firepower) is set to be available by July 2012. The US is witnessing signs of decent components for recovery, particularly in auto, housing and manufacturing. Demand is resilient consumers are spending, and initial jobless claims are at their lowest since May 2008, signalling employment growth. GDP expectations for 2012 are also improving slightly, pointing to a brighter new year.
So not all doom and gloom but given the over-arching uncertainty surrounding the global economy, it is likely that the volatility seen in 2011 will continue to blur the story in 2012.